HIRSTMANIA

The 2-day sale ‘Beautiful Inside My Head Forever’  became another milestone in Hirst's career, but also a milestone in the way that the current contemporary art market operates, and the growing trend in which artists are taking their destiny in their own hands, cutting out the middle-man and dealing directly with the market themselves. Anders Petterson, Founder of ArtTactic, looks at the likely impact of the upcoming sale.

The nature of the sale itself and the recent supply and demand questions that have been raised in relation to the Hirst market, will have an implication for the future perception of this market. Hirst and his team will need to work hard to maintain the confidence in the market, and it is crucial that the up-coming sale is not perceived as anything but a success.

Artist Market Confidence

Within an increasingly negative market sentiment, Damien Hirst still maintains a high degree of confidence in the market place, despite a 26% decline in the ArtTactic Artist Confidence Indicator since the peak of November 2006. The Indicator currently stands at 70, which implies that the number of bulls to bears is more than 2:1, showing that the balance between positive and negative is still in the favour of the bulls.

Prices

After the Pharmacy sale in 2004, Hirst’s prices levelled out for the next two years, and it wasn’t until 2007 that his average auction price (for larger works) broke through the million barrier, more than doubling from the previous year. Until this year, the Average price index has been above the Average Estimate Index since 2003, on the back of strong demand in the Hirst market, pushing prices to the high end of the estimate. However, in 2008, this trend was significantly reversed, with Average Prices sinking more than 12% below the average estimate.

Auction Indicator

Since 2007, the ArtTactic Auction Indicator, which measures the Price-to-Estimate ratios for Damien Hirst, has fallen 56% from 69 to 30. A reading below 50 indicates that the majority of the lots are selling at the lower end of the estimate. So far in 2008, 30 out of 43 lots have sold at the lower end of the estimate (including 10 lots that failed to sell). This suggests that
recent lots are struggling to meet the expectations of the auction house and the sellers. And contrary to the current perception in the art market that the strength is at the top end of the art market, auction figures from 2008, showed that 7 out of 16 Hirst lots above million sold on average 9% below the lower estimate.

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